In light of the new sports gambling news sweeping the country, this is Part 1 of an eight part series predicting team number of wins, starting with the AFC East. The Over/Under lines were found on VegasInsider.com and when referencing each team’s strength of schedule, I always prefer Warren Sharp’s methods which you can find here:
The AFC East will of course play their six divisional games, as well as four against the AFC South and NFC North The two remaining variable games on the schedule are based off of last year’s finish within the division and are stated for each respective squad below.
New England
Over/Under Total: 11
Sharp’s Strength of Schedule Rank: 2nd Easiest
Variable Games: Pittsburgh & Kansas City
The Patriots line of 11 wins is the highest in the NFL. But take into consideration that not only has this team been to the last two Super Bowls, but they have also won a dozen or more games the last eight straight seasons. You mix that winning tradition with an extremely easy slate of games and you can see where Vegas got this high number. We have seen Bill Belichick’s teams come out of the gates slow, as if they use the first month of the season as their version of the preseason and New England’s first three games (Houston, at Jacksonville, at Detroit) could give the Patriots a couple of early losses. Still, the rest of the AFC East has a combined Over/Under total of just 18.5 and the Patriots have an excellent shot of going undefeated within their division. Of course New England brings back Belichick, Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski, but Julian Edelman also returns from injury and New England spent two first round picks on the offensive side of the ball and picked up some very useful veterans to add to the defense. New England isn’t going anywhere and 12-4 or better seems very realistic for this team in 2018.
The Verdict: OVER
Buffalo
Over/Under Total: 6.5
Sharp’s Strength of Schedule Rank: 15th Easiest
Variable Games: Baltimore & Los Angeles Chargers
The Bills were not hit overly hard by injuries last year and surprisingly, posted a winning record and ended up in the postseason. That being said, this was (and very much still is) a very below average roster overall. In the draft, they made two big splash additions in Josh Allen and Tremaine Edmunds, but didn’t improve all that much in other areas of the team. These two first round selections might pay off huge going forward, but they are unlikely to pay huge dividends in 2018. Buffalo is a well-coached team with a clear plan in place, but also face a very rough opening month and a half to start the season as they travel to Baltimore, host the Chargers, go to Minnesota and Green Bay in Week 3 and 4 and then finish that six game stretch off at home against the Titans and on the road in Houston. Buffalo might not win one of their first six games. Although it does get easier after that, the Patriots still loom twice on the slate in Week 8 and Week 16 while also hosting the Jaguars in Week 12. Getting to seven wins won’t be easy for this team at all and this is easily the bet I feel most strongly about in the AFC East.
The Verdict: UNDER
Miami
Over/Under Total: 6
Sharp’s Strength of Schedule Rank: 9th Easiest
Variable Games: Cincinnati & Oakland
The Dolphins were one of the teams in the NFL hit hardest by injuries last year, including the loss of Ryan Tannehill for the entire season. Say what you want about Tannehill, but he is a big improvement from what we saw out of Jay Cutler last year. The Dolphins also started to create a formidable running game late in the year through Kenyon Drake. The defense was quite poor last year and now is missing its best player in Ndamukong Suh. As usual, a lot of changes have been made to this roster. In the end, the line of Miami finishing the season at 6-10 seems just about right, but this looks like an organization that should win more than five games, especially with a game against the Colts and two vs. the Jets and Bills on the slate. That being said and I do have faith in Adam Gase, of the four AFC East predictions here; this is the one I would least likely bet on. In fact, if the odds were enticing, betting on the Dolphins to land right at six wins might be the best move with a big payoff.
The Verdict: OVER
New York Jets
Over/Under Total: 6
Sharp’s Strength of Schedule Rank: 6th Easiest
Variable Games: Cleveland & Denver
After finishing fourth in the AFC East, the Jets are granted the privilege of playing Cleveland and Denver for their two variable games. The problem with that is that the Browns and Broncos look to be vastly improved teams and very well could be favored over New York when they meet in Week 3 and Week 5 respectively. Like as is the case with Buffalo, the Jets were not hit overly hard by injuries last year. In their final seven games, New York still only won just one of them. The Jets finish the 2018 season hosting Houston, Green Bay and then traveling to New England, who conceivably could have nothing to play for. These last two draft classes could really pay off down the line, but the Jets are awfully weak at quite a few positions. When will Sam Darnold take over? Will Josh McCown play as well as he did last year? Might Teddy Bridgewater factor in at some point? The chances of the Jets winning seven games are far worse than them winning five.
The Verdict: UNDER
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